The new energy vehicle market is about to enter the “trillion era” and move to high-end intelligence

Going to market-driven, moving to high-end intelligence

After a golden growth period, the new energy vehicle market is ushering in a period of market consolidation. Many independent brands have begun to emerge, and leading new energy vehicle companies such as BYD, Xiaopeng, and Aian have continued to challenge joint venture brands. At the same time, consumers’ pursuit of intelligent connectivity has accelerated the market for new energy vehicles. Accounting rate. According to iiMedia Research, the scale of China’s new energy vehicle market has increased year by year from 2017 to 2021. In 2021, the scale of China’s new energy vehicle market will be 600 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.5%.

But it is worth noting that the current new energy industry is changing from subsidy-driven to market-driven. With the decline and cancellation of state subsidies, car companies that lack product competitiveness may be eliminated from the market. After a new round of reshuffle, technology Leading companies with strong product competitiveness and clear positioning are expected to enjoy long-term industry high growth dividends.


This year, domestic new energy passenger vehicle sales sprint to 6.5 million units

The scale of the new energy vehicle market is about to reach a trillion-level scale, and the market potential is huge, and it has become a popular investment target. Many players represented by new car-making forces, Huawei, Xiaomi and other Internet companies are competing to enter the game, and the entire industry is in a state of blooming. iiMedia Research recently released the “2022-2023 Global and China New Energy Vehicle Industry Consumption Trend Monitoring and Case Study Report”, showing that the new energy industry is changing from subsidy-driven to market-driven. It is estimated that in the next four years, China’s new energy vehicle market will grow The scale will continue to maintain a rapid upward trend.

Specifically, according to the statistics of the Passenger Federation, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in September reached 611,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 82.9%; from January to September, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 3.877 million units, an increase of 113.2% year-on-year. %. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach the highest value in recent years, at 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, achieving a super-substantial growth. Previously, the Federation of Passenger Transport Associations has raised the forecast data for the annual sales of new energy passenger vehicles from 5.5 million to 6 million. Based on the performance of commercial vehicles, the annual sales of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 6.5 million.

In addition, in July this year, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 26.7%, an increase of 11.9 percentage points compared with the penetration rate of 14.8% in July 2021. Judging from the current market development, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2023 may be expected to up to 35%. Notably, sales in China’s new energy vehicle market have more than doubled compared to the same period in 2021, accounting for most of the global growth.

The favorable policies have also given enough confidence that the new energy vehicle market will continue to heat up. At the end of May, the four departments jointly issued the “Notice on Carrying out 2022 New Energy Vehicles Going to the Countryside Activities”, and the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation reduced the purchase tax of some passenger vehicles; in August, the executive meeting of the State Council decided that new energy vehicles will be exempted from vehicles The purchase tax policy is extended until the end of 2023. Jilin Province and Henan Province are also further studying and promulgating policies and measures to support the consumption of new energy vehicles recently. The Passenger Federation said that the current consumption promotion policies for new energy vehicles in various places are not lower than fuel vehicles in terms of subsidy amount and coverage, which will help the new energy vehicle market maintain a high growth trend.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, pointed out that the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy is in line with expectations. He said that facing the withdrawal of subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles at the end of this year, continuing to exempt the purchase tax for one year will provide a buffer for the market.

The positive trend of high speed has also promoted the rapid development of the infrastructure of the new energy industry. The data shows that the three provinces with the largest number of charging piles in China are Guangdong Province, Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province. In addition, the top 5 public charging pile operators account for 70% of the market share, the number of public charging piles of Xingxing charging and special calls exceeds 270,000, and the number of charging piles of State Grid and Cloud Quick Charge exceeds 170,000.

iiMedia Research analysts believe that, as an important “supply station” for new energy vehicles, the layout of charging piles has greatly affected the development of the entire new energy vehicle industry. In addition, benefiting from the promotion of policies and the continuous rise in demand in the downstream new energy vehicle industry, the growth of private charging piles in China is faster than that of public charging piles, but there is still a big gap compared with market demand. At the same time, from the perspective of product structure, the “dumbbell-shaped” structure of the pure electric market still needs to be improved, and domestic high-end new energy products still need to break through.


The rise of independent brands, high-end and intelligent become the main theme

Data from iiMedia Research shows that in the first half of 2022, BYD’s new energy vehicle brand with the highest sales volume in the Chinese market is BYD, with a cumulative sales volume of 641,400 vehicles, followed by Tesla and Shanghai GM-Wuling. The three brands with the highest recognition of new energy vehicles by Chinese consumers are BYD, Xpeng and Toyota. Among them, BYD’s proportion is far higher than other new energy vehicle brands, with a proportion of 60.4%; Xpeng and Toyota also consume in China The respondents occupy a certain position in their hearts, the proportions are 42.3% and 33.5% respectively. Pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles are currently considered the most promising new energy vehicle types by Chinese consumers.

BYD and Xpeng can stand out from the market competition, on the one hand, because of their core hard power, on the other hand, thanks to the greatly improved acceptance of domestic cars by the people, high-end and intelligent are becoming independent car companies to enrich their own strength. the second development curve. From Weilai, Gaohe and other brand models with a price of more than 400,000 yuan, to the establishment of a high-end brand Hyper by GAC Aian, BYD will establish a high-end off-road brand with a price range of more than 500,000 yuan, and the high-end domestic brands have become more and more intense.

Data show that in the first half of this year, the number of passenger vehicles with combined driving assistance functions in China reached 2.28 million, and the penetration rate rose to 32.4%, a year-on-year increase of 46.2%. The competition of new energy vehicles in the intelligent and high-end racetrack is more intense, and the competition is the technical reserves of various car companies.

Represented by BYD, it is the first company in the world to master the core technology of the whole industry chain of electric vehicles. BYD basically has the whole industry from silicon purification, to wafers, to chip manufacturing, to parts research and development, production, vehicle assembly, etc. The chain’s self-developed and self-produced, as well as the technical empowerment of CTB technology and e-platform 3.0, have formed BYD’s “moat” in the field of new energy vehicles. Starting in 2021, BYD has shown strong leadership in the domestic new energy market.

And Xiaopeng’s performance at the financial level also highlights the vitality of its own new energy brand. According to iiMedia Research, from 2018 to the first quarter of 2022, Xiaopeng Motors received a total operating income of 33.618 billion yuan. iiMedia Research analysts believe that although the operating cash flow of Xiaopeng Motors is still negative and it is still in a state of “burning money”, it has achieved considerable revenue growth in 2021, and the delivery volume is increasing. In addition, the sales service and supercharger network are expanding rapidly, and the pace of new product launches is accelerating, paving the way for Xiaopeng Motors to penetrate the mid-to-high-end market, and the financial situation is expected to continue to improve.

Xie Juan, general manager of Jundi China’s automotive digital retail consulting division, believes that the transformation of automotive products is rapidly driving the constant changes in consumer demand. The reason why the new independent forces can seize the leading position in the industry stems from their own Internet genes’ keen sense of user needs.


Safety is the main factor for consumers to buy new energy vehicles

Data from iiMedia Research shows that in the analysis of Chinese new energy vehicle users’ purchase factors in 2022, the top five factors that consumers mainly consider are car safety, charging time, maximum cruising range, car price and state subsidies.

In addition, in the survey of dissatisfaction with new energy vehicles, poor battery life, high maintenance costs, and imperfect supporting facilities have become the main complaints of consumers.

Industry analysts believe that in the past year or two, the frequent occurrence of new energy vehicle safety accidents and recalls has made consumers’ attention to vehicle safety performance jump to the top. Secondly, the core of new energy vehicles is the battery. Only with breakthroughs in battery technology can the car’s endurance be improved and consumers’ travel concerns be resolved. Car companies have a long way to go to improve battery technology.

iiMedia Research analysts said that safety is still the main consideration for consumers to buy new energy vehicles. China’s new energy vehicle industry should formulate new technical standards and safety standards, strengthen the capacity building of the supervision platform, and establish a “before, during and after” monitoring system. In addition, accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure has become the focus of development. Government departments should issue guidelines for the new energy smart vehicle industry, encourage technological innovation and industrialization of wireless charging, smart charging, and high-power charging, and support the construction and operation of hydrogen refueling stations.

“What technical route to choose in the future, how to reduce costs and increase efficiency, improve safety performance, and create products that satisfy consumers will be the core propositions for the high-quality development of new energy vehicles in my country.” Associate Professor, School of Automotive, Tongji University Song Ke, director of the Drive System Innovation Research Institute, believes that it is necessary to improve the independent and controllable capabilities of my country’s new energy vehicle core technologies, and to have the right to speak in the selection of key technology routes; at the same time, it is necessary to continuously increase the technical reserves from raw materials to applications.

■Planning: New Express reporter Luo Yun ■Coordinator: New Express reporter Liang Yu ■Writing: New Express reporter Zhang Lei Drawing: Liao Muxing

Data Sources

iiMedia Research “2022-2023 Global and China New Energy Vehicle Industry Consumption Trend Monitoring and Case Study Report”, JD Power “2022 China New Energy Vehicle Customer Experience Value Research Report”