Putin changed the table to meet Shoigu and released 3 important messages to the world

On October 28, Putin listened to the report of the Russian Defense Minister on the mobilization of 300,000 reserve troops at his official residence in Moscow, Novi Okaryvo. This time, Putin changed the table and was in high spirits, compared to when Putin listened to Shoigu’s report on the battle against Mariupol on April 21, in a completely different spirit.

It’s hard to say why Putin changed his place this time, but one thing is certain. Last time, because of Putin’s sitting position, Western public opinion hyped Putin’s “healthy” condition.

This time Putin obviously did not want to give Western public opinion a handle. Not only did he sit upright, but the layout of the entire conference room was also more concise. Putin met Shoigu to release three important news to the world this time.

First, Russia’s goal of mobilizing 300,000 reserve troops has been completed. Among them, 218,000 people are still participating in combat training in Russia’s military training centers. The other 82,000 people have entered the military operation area, and 41,000 of them have gone to the front line. This means that Russia has sent an additional 82,000 troops to Ukraine.

Second, Putin obviously wants to tell the outside world that Russia will not give up the established goal of special military operations. As long as the time is right, it can survive the most difficult situation at present. When Ukraine can’t run out, the Russian army may still attack Nikolai. Odessa, Odessa and Kharkov attacked again. At this stage, Russia’s priority is obviously defense rather than offense. At present, the Ukrainian army on the front line is obviously more than Russia’s. After all, Ukraine is conducting a national general mobilization.

Third, the 300,000 reserve force started at the end of September, and the goal was completed in more than a month. Putin slapped the West with his actions. When Putin began to mobilize, Western public opinion exaggerated the fact that Russians began to flee, but the fact is that 300,000 people were mobilized in one month, which means that Russia still has huge room for mobilization.

At the same time, Ukraine is also stepping up its mobilization. So, how big is Ukraine’s war potential? How big is the mobilization potential?

More than 10 million people have left Ukraine since the conflict broke out, according to UN figures. Adding the population of the four Eastern Ukrainian regions, Donetsk is 4 million, Luhansk is 2.12 million, Kherson Region is 1.01 million, Zaporozhye Region is 1.66 million, and the total population of the four regions reaches 9 million. Ukraine has 43 million people, and now there are only more than 20 million people left.

According to Ukrainian sources, Ukraine now has about 1 million mobilized troops plus the size of the defense sector. What does it mean to maintain an army of 1 million in a country with a population of 20 million? Let’s look at the group data first.

Israel, with a population of nearly 10 million, has only 200,000 troops;

The population of Greece is about 10 million, with 140,000 military personnel and 220,000 reservists;

Sweden, with a population of about 10 million, has only 60,000 troops;

Belgium has only 40,000 troops.

According to this ratio, Ukraine’s 20 million people have reached the limit of 400,000 troops. You must know that Ukraine is not a developed country, and the above countries are all developed countries. To put it bluntly, so many military personnel in Ukraine will directly lead to domestic economic stagnation, insufficient supply of weapons and ammunition, and it is difficult to sustain the war for a long time.

Then, why is Ukraine still able to counterattack Donbass and Kherson?

First, because of the strong support from Europe and the United States, the funds to support Ukraine have reached a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars. In other words, the current Russian confrontation is basically and precisely Ukraine supported by the West. Once Ukraine is abandoned, failure will be inevitable.

Second, Russia’s special military operation against Ukraine has limited ground troops, which should be 150,000 to 200,000 people. The size of Ukraine’s military is obviously much higher than this number. In addition, the Ukrainian army is actually fighting on the mainland, and the supply is relatively easier, while the supply line of the Russian army is obviously longer and more difficult.

Third, the battle line between Russia and Ukraine now stretches from Kharkov to Kherson. The nearly 2,000-kilometer battle line is for Russia. For Russia, the appetite is large and the force is small, while the Ukrainian army can relatively concentrate its forces to attack a little bit. The Russian army would have to increase its defense from other places. Therefore, although the Ukrainian army counterattacked in the direction of Luhansk and Kherson, in fact, the counterattack points were still relatively concentrated, and they did not launch a counterattack from the entire front.

The important thing is that Russia’s strategic goals are now blurred, whether to take down the Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye and stop military operations, or to completely demilitarize Ukraine. At present, Putin is also No explicit statement was made.

To put it bluntly, it is still procrastinating. Russia depends on how long Ukraine can procrastinate. The West also wants to see if Russia can beat itself. Therefore, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue, and all parties are likely to increase their stakes.

Because now Ukraine does not want peace talks, and the United States has no intention of peace talks. Only the EU wants Ukraine and Russia to have peace talks. However, it is not the EU but the United States that can dominate the Kyiv authorities now. Now Zelensky’s role is to fight to the death without fear of a strong enemy, but Zelensky cannot ignore the fact that Ukraine cannot depend on the West for a lifetime. If During his tenure, Ukraine has been torn apart, its economy has declined, its population has declined, and how is history going to write him?

Speaking of Russia, although Russia is relatively passive in Donbas and Kherson, after all, it controls the territory of Ukraine and does not hurt the mainland. The cost of Russian casualties is still much smaller, and Russia has more options.

After all, Russia is an energy power with great military potential. Once Russia is freed from the shackles of insufficient weapons and ammunition and its troop replenishment improves, it means that the West will have to double its support for Ukraine if it wants to put Ukraine in a favorable position at the negotiating table in the future. And doubling support for Ukraine will indirectly affect the mood of the domestic people, and the durability of the West is doubtful. After all, this is not a direct war between Russia and the West. It is impossible for the West to intervene for Ukraine. As long as the root of the West is hurt, Ukraine can only play the role of cannon fodder in the end.

A temporary change in the situation does not represent the final direction of the war. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is full of variables, and such variables are more likely to happen to Ukraine and Western countries than to Russia. Russia’s strategic determination is still stronger than that of the West, and its military strength is far higher than that of Ukraine. As long as Russia’s energy consumption continues, it will naturally achieve the desired results.

Sometimes I think that if Ukraine loses Zelensky, he may go to Hollywood to develop, so who should write the Ukrainian script?