Heaven has changed! Hello surpassed Didi for the first time to become the first in the industry. What is the fineness of this “first”?

A few days ago, Hello, through various channels, announced that Hello’s quarterly average DAU (number of daily active users) in the third quarter exceeded Didi, ranking first in the industry. In order to show the fairness of the data, Hello quoted the “2022 Q3 Mobile Internet Industry Data Research Report” released by Aurora Big Data, a well-known mobile big data service provider.

  Jiguang’s report compares the user scale performance of different car service apps in the industry in the third quarter. Among them, the number of active users of Hello surpasses Didi App and ranks first in the car service industry. Its app’s quarterly average DAU exceeded 10 million in the third quarter. , reached 10.007 million, and climbed to a peak of 10.87 million in September, while the daily active users of Didi App have fallen below the 10 million mark.

  The number of active users of Hello exceeds that of Didi, which means that China’s online booking travel hegemon has changed hands for the first time in the past ten years. The unfinished “historical feats” of Shenzhou Special Car, Kuaidi, Uber, AutoNavi, Meituan, Baidu, Cao Cao, Yidao, and Shouqi have finally been realized in Hello.

  The industry pattern has changed, and some companies are happy and some are sad. Some people feel sorry for Didi and feel that the hero is late. I think, for DiDi now, the more low-key the better. Some institutions strip Didi of its “industry leader” halo, which is a good thing for Didi.

  More people questioned Haro’s inability to win. This so-called first-class quality is insufficient and the gold content is not high. “DiDi has been unable to be downloaded by users for more than a year. You have nothing to be proud of.” A friend also used an image metaphor: Hello replaced Didi to become the market leader. For example, why Sunak can be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom does not depend on how good he is, but on how good Truss and Boris are. Difference.

  As my regular readers know, about Didi and Hello, I have been following them since their early days and have published more than 100 analytical articles. This time, Hello has achieved a historic overtake of Didi, and many friends have discussed related hot topics with me. I talked about some of my views and shared them today. Note: The authenticity of the data in the “2022 Q3 Mobile Internet Industry Data Research Report” is not a topic we want to discuss today.

  1. How can Hello win?

  Industry competition is a combination of all kinds of things, the winner must be the result of the combination of strength, luck, opportunity and other factors.

  It’s like the battle of Chibi. The environment helped Sun Wu’s coalition. Can you say that they won’t win by force? It’s like the Olympic hurdles competition. Liu Xiang fell and the opponent won the championship. Can you say that the opponent won’t win? , Chinese film box office surpassed the United States for the first time, can you say that we can’t win?

  After the Didi accident last year, it was not only the Hello family who competed for the market cake, but also dozens of large and medium-sized players such as Meituan, Shouqi, Cao Cao, Ruqi, T3, Xiangdao, Shenzhou, and Ctrip. Even quasi-finalists like Yi Dao are trying to get a piece of the pie. In such a fiercely competitive environment, Haro stands out. There is nothing to win, and there is no victory.

  There are also doubts that Hello is mainly for sharing bicycles, and it is not the same track as Didi, and the two cannot be compared. This is actually a kind of past perception. Today, online travel has already diversified and integrated development. On the Didi platform, in addition to online car-hailing, there are bicycles, delivery, car washing, refueling and charging, nucleic acid testing, borrowing money, etc. Call charges and other services. Similarly, on the Hello platform, in addition to sharing bicycles, there are services such as taxi-hailing, renting a car, fueling and charging, hotel accommodation, borrowing money, and delivery. As for Meituan and Ctrip, they have already diversified.

  2. Can Didi overtake it?

  Whether Didi can overtake Haro again depends on two factors, one is when Didi will be unblocked, and the other is whether Haro can maintain a strong fighting force in the future.

  The first element is very important. Assuming that Didi can be unblocked in 2022, Didi will soon be able to overtake Hello. Please believe in the energy contained in Didi. Assuming that Didi is not unblocked in 2023 or even 2024, it will become more and more difficult to overtake it even if it is unblocked in the future.

  Some people may say that in addition to its own APP, Didi can also serve users through fourth-party platforms such as WeChat, Baidu Maps, Meituan, and AutoNavi Maps. In fact, these fourth-party aggregation platforms have all started to do one thing, which is to launch their own taxi services. Meituan’s own taxi-hailing service has been launched, and it has been deeply cultivated in many places. Baidu’s self-driving cars are also carrying out normal commercial operations in more and more cities. The relationship between the enemy and the enemy that Didi faces is more complicated than we imagined, and today’s friends may become rivals tomorrow.

  The improvement of Haro’s own ability is another factor in suppressing Didi’s overtake. Hello has done a lot of things in recent years, completed the brand upgrade, personally went off the field to build a two-wheeled electric vehicle and entered the hinterland of Yadi, laid out a serious blind date business, joined forces with partners to enter the hotel booking market, and the taxi business has blossomed everywhere… This set After the operation, the reach of Hello has become wider and wider, and the number of users has steadily increased.

  However, everything has its pros and cons. After the extension of Hello’s tentacles, it also put some former partners on the opposite side, such as Yadi. In addition, companies such as Meituan will also target more artillery fire at Hello, and Hello will face several offensives in the future. In short, with the exchange of offensive and defensive situations, Didi can win more allies in the future, or it may be a blessing in disguise.

  3. What will the future hello look like?

  Today’s hello, compared to the original hello, has grown into a “four dissimilarities”. What is the future hello going to do? On this topic, I was interviewed by two media, The Beijing News and Business School, and talked about a few points.

  The following is the content of the report presented in the “Beijing News”:

  Internet observer Ding Daoshi believes that Hello wants to go beyond travel and become a comprehensive life service platform, so the business continues to expand to adapt to various environmental changes. Diversified business does not need to be self-operated, becoming a fourth-party service platform, which can be understood as an aggregation model to give full play to the value of platform traffic.

  Ding Daoshi believes that there is still a lot of room for the development of local life services, involving all aspects of demand. Local life services have developed to this day. For example, Meituan can meet only a small part of user needs. Other needs based on home services are still emerging, but these needs are too scattered, and no one platform can provide one-stop service. However, diversified demand will definitely bring diversified supply, which are all new opportunities.

  The following is the report presented in the “Business School”:

  According to Ding Daoshi’s analysis and judgment, Harbin’s two-wheeled electric vehicle is not to take all the market, but after its own experimental verification, its platform will also be stationed in third-party two-wheeled electric vehicles to provide users with services. This is its big logic.

  In Ding Daoshi’s view, the more important thing for Haro to enter the competition for two-wheeled electric vehicles is to make the layout for its VVSMART ultra-connected vehicle system. This hyper-connected car-machine system is to make profits from the ecological level for the entire ecological layout of Haro. “We can imagine such a scenario, one day you are riding a Yadea electric car equipped with the VVSMART ultra-connected car system, riding near the restaurant, and a group buying discount package pops up on the screen, then this service is likely to be provided by Ha Provided by partners in the Hello Ecology, this service spans the brands and types of electric vehicles, and can connect the supply and demand ends unimpeded through Internet services. By that time, Hello has been upgraded to an ecological platform, with a larger travel industry. The right to speak.”

  Ding Daoshi believes that Haro needs to be an ecology and platform, and the car system should be opened up for the industry to use, instead of being both a “referee” and an “athlete”. In Ding Daoshi’s view, Hello is essentially an ecological and platform company. It should connect more partners to make the market bigger and stronger. There is no need to end the game in person. The more you do it yourself. , the more opponents you have established, and the many previous partners will leave, which will outweigh the gains in the long run.

  Written at the end: For Hello, even if it has developed to today’s diversified state, it is still not finalized, and the future is still full of infinite possibilities and infinite challenges.