Dry goods! Data speaks, the status and development of advanced packaging

Xiao Zhiyi, vice president of Tianshui Huatian Technology Co., Ltd., analyzed the challenges and opportunities facing China’s semiconductor development at the China IC Packaging and Testing Industry Chain Innovation and Development Summit Forum.

Development status of the global semiconductor industry

1. Development of the semiconductor and integrated circuit industry

Xiao Zhiyi introduced the development of the global semiconductor industry. The scale of the global semiconductor industry is gradually expanding with the growth of the global economy. In 2021, the demand for semiconductors will surge, and the production capacity will be in short supply, causing an imbalance between supply and demand. The extension of delivery time and the increase of product prices have driven the market size and the revenue of the industry to grow significantly. The growth momentum has continued until 2022, and the global semiconductor market is expected to reach US$613.5 billion, with a growth rate of more than 10%. Even if the demand for consumer electronics drops sharply in 2022, emerging applications such as 5G, Internet of Things, and automotive electronics will still drive the steady growth of the semiconductor industry in the long run.

If we look at the global semiconductor market size in terms of regions, then the regional differences in industrial development are more obvious. The overall scale of integrated circuit companies in the United States accounts for 54% of the world’s total and is the absolute leader, while my country’s data probably only accounts for 54% of the world’s total. 13% overall.

According to WSTS data, after 2019, the growth rate of the United States is the fastest, while the growth rate of China has fallen far behind and is lower than the global average growth rate. Specifically, the table on the right shows that before 2019, the growth rate of the Chinese region has been higher than the average level, even higher than that of the United States, but after 2019, the growth rate of the United States has surpassed that of the Chinese region and is far ahead.

Look at the scale and growth of the integrated circuit market: in 2021, the global integrated circuit sales will reach 463 billion US dollars, accounting for 83.29% of the total global semiconductor market, with a growth rate of more than 30%. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2021, the demand for terminals will gradually decline, and the market growth rate of integrated circuits will also return to rationality. In 2021, both packaging and testing and foundries will usher in a period of crazy growth, but they will finally return in 2022. to rationality.

From the perspective of subdivisions, due to the promotion of automotive electronics and process applications, logic circuits and analog circuits are still the markets with relatively large growth. After the large-scale growth of memory chips in 2021, the growth rate in 2022 is expected to be only 1%, which is basically stagnant. As can be seen from this chart, logic circuits and analog circuits are growing the fastest.

From the perspective of integrated circuit shipments, the global integrated circuit IC shipments in 2022 reached a record 427.7 billion pieces, ushering in a 9.2% growth, although lower than the 22% when the economy recovered in 2021. The cumulative output of China’s integrated circuits from January to May 2022 was 134.9 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, mainly due to weak demand for consumer electronics and reduced output caused by the epidemic in cities including Shanghai.

2. Development of packaging and testing industry

Xiao Zhiyi also demonstrated the global and Chinese packaging and testing market scale. The scale of the packaging and testing market in the global and Chinese markets is gradually expanding, and the growth rate of the packaging and testing market in China is higher than the global level. It is predicted that the global packaging and testing market will grow from $51 billion in 2016 to $72.2 billion in 2025. The size of China’s packaging and testing market has grown from 156.4 billion yuan in 2016 to 355.19 billion yuan in 2025. From 2016 to 2025, the compound growth rate of the packaging and testing market in mainland China has reached 9.54%, much higher than the global packaging and testing market. 3.95% of the market’s average.

2016-2025 The proportion of mainland China’s packaging and testing market in the global packaging and testing market

It can be seen from the above figure that in the field of global packaging and testing, the dominant position of the mainland’s packaging level in the market is becoming more and more obvious and strengthened.

High spirited advanced packaging

The market size of advanced packaging is rapidly catching up with the traditional packaging market, and the overall trend is upward. In 2021, the market value of advanced packaging is about 37.5 billion US dollars, accounting for 44% of the entire packaging market size; it is predicted to grow at a rate of 9.66% from 2021 to 2027, reaching US$65 billion in 2027.

In the advanced packaging segment, the flip-chip platform (including FCBGA, FCCSP and FC-SiP) has the highest market share, accounting for 70% in 2021. ED, 2.5D/3D, and FO will be the fastest growing advanced packaging platforms in the future.

What is driving the growth of advanced packaging?

In the future, sensors will have many new electronic applications in communication, computing and storage, which will continue to promote the development of advanced packaging. In addition, the continuous development of 5G, the application of AR and VR, the demand for high-speed computing notebooks, and the continuous growth of processors and data centers are all areas where 3D packaging needs to be applied. In the future, driven by these electronic applications, the growth of advanced packaging is expected.

1. Advanced packaging revenue of global TOP6 players in 2021

At the same time, Xiao Zhiyi shared the advanced packaging revenue of the global TOP6 players in 2021. Among them, Intel, Samsung, TSMC, etc. have different proportions. ASE focuses on FCBCA, and Intel is also in FCBCA, but a large proportion of TSMC is in FO and 3D stacking, and Samsung also focuses on 3D stacking. , it can be seen that in the field of advanced packaging, it is not as simple as packaging and testing. There is a cross between packaging and testing and the previous road, and now it is in a melee situation.

In the post-Moore’s Law period, the improvement of chip performance requires the development of packaging technology to continue without changing the existing chip lithography process.

2. Fiery Chiplet

Chiplet is strictly a SiP, the difference is that it makes SiP more miniaturized. The original SiP was integrated on the PCB board, but now the Chiplet is integrated in the chip unit. Through the blessing of the previous process, by stacking packages without coating spots, etc., a chip-level package is made inside the chip, and the package is made inside the chip.

Chiplet is to solve the heterogeneous integration.

When a single material cannot meet the demand, alloys come out. When a single craft cannot meet the demands, more crafts come out, just like the development from the Bronze Age to the Iron Age earlier in the past, and from the Iron Age It has developed to the appearance of alloy steel and alloy steel, which has led to changes in the characteristics of different materials. In the same way, through the integration of heterogeneous, different processes, different structures, and different functions, different materials are born. The advantage of a different material is that it can push the physical limits of a material or a process in a chip.

Different processes and different materials can be freely selected, so that the yield can be improved and the repeated application of products can be realized. The ability to maximize the properties of each material is also the focus of advanced packaging in the future.

Forge ahead and develop collaboratively

The primary condition for achieving advanced packaging and heterogeneous integration scale in the post-Moore era is an industry ecosystem covering wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, materials, co-design simulation, etc., rather than just making chips.

Advanced packaging, in terms of equipment, faces more abundant packaging functions, more refined precision control and higher automation level requirements. In terms of materials, it is necessary to extend the front-end process technology, and advanced packaging requires new materials, and the requirements for various properties such as force, heat, and electricity of materials are more stringent.

This requires higher domestic coordinated development, and domestic equipment and materials usually play a crucial role in this process.

In the current equipment, 65% of the equipment in advanced packaging is domestic equipment. The amount and proportion of domestic equipment have increased from 327 million in 2019 to 468 million in 2020 and 637 million in 2021. huge growth.

To what extent are domestic “stuck neck” products replaced? Mr. Xiao Zhiyi explained with the company’s data. The localization rate of newly-added equipment in the company’s factory is 96% by type, the overall quantity of domestic equipment purchases has reached 65%, and the purchase amount of domestic equipment has reached 52%. Moreover, the domestic equipment has been optimized and improved, and the downtime rate has been greatly reduced. At present, it can basically be equal to the imported equipment. At the same time, in the process of promoting the localization of equipment, the purchase of domestic equipment has grown steadily.

Domestic semiconductor companies have a common goal, to strive for survival, to seek development through innovation, to start a new situation through cooperation, and to give domestic production a little time.

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