Dare to fight? The Serbian army is gathering in the direction of Kosovo, Putin can’t help now

Check out the latest news from Serbia and Kosovo.

Serbian President Alexander Vucic has ordered the army to gather around Kosovo due to the complexity of the situation and the election of an Albanian mayor in the northern city of Kosovo, Zvekan, which caused serious disturbances and protested with the Serbs. , The Serbian army is already on high alert.

Recently, Serbs in Kosovo clashed with the Kosovo authorities again. The Serbian side took a tough stance and demanded that Kosovo respect the Serbs’ right to self-government.

Serbia did not hesitate to build up troops in the direction of Kosovo to put pressure on it this time, and NATO and EU security forces also marched towards the north of Kosovo.

So, does Serbia really dare to use force?

It is impossible to draw conclusions first.

First, NATO led by the United States has always had a military presence in Kosovo. If Serbia uses force against Kosovo, the United States may destroy Serbia’s front-line firepower immediately.

Because the United States recognizes Kosovo’s independence, it’s amazing. If the Russians in eastern Ukraine want to take refuge in Russia, the United States will not do it. For Kosovo, the United States launched an operation to bomb Kosovo.

Second, Serbia is actively seeking to join the EU, and the EU’s position is to allow Serbia to join with Kosovo, which means that the EU will not support Serbia’s position on Kosovo.

If Serbia uses force against Kosovo, its accession to the EU will be out of reach.

Third, the outcome of Serbia’s fight against Kosovo is doomed. As long as Serbia intervenes militarily, the United States will not stand idly by. Serbia will not only fail, but Kosovo may solve the problem once and for all.

Serbia doesn’t want to be sanctioned now, as long as military operations are launched, Serbia will definitely be sanctioned by the United States. You must know that Serbia relies on energy imports, whether it is oil or natural gas, and when these energy sources cannot enter, the situation of Serbia can be imagined.

Now regarding the Serbian issue, both the United States and the European Union will seek a short-term solution, so it will definitely put a lot of pressure on Serbia to force it to submit. Because the focus of Europe and the United States is now on Russia, and because of aiding Ukraine, Europe and the United States are very busy, especially on the issue of aiding Ukrainian fighter jets. How to provide logistics for the F16, provide ammunition, and even who will train the pilots are all problems. .

At this time, Europe and the United States really have no time to focus on Kosovo and Serbia. Does that mean that Serbia can take the opportunity to send troops?

First, Vucic will not misjudge the situation. Although the focus of Europe and the United States is on Ukraine, it is related to the interests of the hinterland of Europe, and it is almost NATO’s collective support for the incident in Kosovo. It is impossible for NATO to stand idly by.

Kosovo is one of NATO’s military achievements and the key to the “Westernization” of Europe’s power. The United States will not tolerate Serbia’s expansion, and Germany and France will not allow Serbia to “return to its peak.”

Second, Vucic needs to “make a gesture”. After all, Serbs are not easy to mess with. As the president of Serbia, he must make a proper gesture at the right time. It’s just that Serbia understands reality now, and Vucic understands how to survive between the United States and Europe. Joining the European Union and maintaining a stable relationship with the United States is what Serbia chooses if it doesn’t want to choose.

Third, it can also be seen from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that Serbia does not want to be Ukraine. Whether it is its relationship with Europe, America or Russia, Serbia is pursuing balance. Although the relationship between Serbia and Europe and the United States is not good, Serbia is in Europe after all. If it wants to develop its economy, it must rely on the European Union. If it wants to be accepted by the West, it must have a good relationship with the United States.

From this point of view, Ukraine has made a huge strategic mistake. As a transitional country between Europe and Russia, it is always impossible for Ukraine to get rid of Russia’s geo-influence, unless Ukraine does not want to earn transit fees. Even Greece has bought many weapons from Russia.

As a country that has a deep relationship with Russia, if it insists on rushing to the West and chooses to break with Russia, I am afraid that only Ukraine can do this kind of thing. Because Ukraine has no need to make a choice at all, just let the West and Russia win over itself to reap the benefits of the fisherman, but Ukraine has to hold on to the thighs of the European Union and the thighs of the United States to fight against Russia.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why Ukraine has not developed for so many years, because it has not done a good job in the balance of power. If Zelensky thinks that Ukraine has not developed well because it has not joined the EU, then it is really wrong. The United Kingdom has withdrawn from the European Union, which means that if you are not in Europe, you must join the European Union.

For Serbia, the situation between Serbia and Ukraine is different. Serbia has been surrounded by EU countries and does not border Russia. If it does not join the EU, if the situation changes, Serbia will be completely isolated.

To sum up, it is impossible for Serbia to use force against Kosovo now, and Russia can’t help Serbia now. Russia is now in a state of desperation against the entire West. The issue of how to develop the economy and geo-security is also placed on Putin on the desk.