At the beginning of the year, China’s economy stabilized and rebounded to achieve the expected goals.

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 16th. “Economic Information Daily” published an article on March 16th, “China’s economy will stabilize and recover in the first year and achieve the expected goals.” According to the article, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 2.4% year-on-year, the service industry production index increased by 5.5% year-on-year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and investment increased by 5.5% year-on-year… A number of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 15 It shows that from January to February this year, my country’s economic operation showed a trend of stabilization and recovery.

Looking forward to the whole year, industry insiders said that this year’s economic development still faces many difficulties, and it will take arduous efforts to promote the overall improvement of economic operation, but there are foundations, conditions, and confidence in achieving the expected economic growth target of about 5%.

The economy as a whole stabilized and picked up

“Since the beginning of this year, with the rapid and steady transition of epidemic prevention and control, the effect of stabilizing economic policies has continued to appear, and the overall economic operation has shown a trend of stabilization and recovery.” Talking about the performance of China’s economy at the beginning of this year, the 1- At the press conference on the operation of the national economy in February, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said so.

Both industrial and services production picked up. From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.4% year-on-year, compared with an increase of 1.3% in December last year, a rebound of 1.1 percentage points. From the perspective of the service industry, the production index of the service industry increased by 5.5% year-on-year from January to February, and it fell in December last year, realizing a change from a decline to an increase. “The growth rate of industrial added value basically matches the pace of overall economic recovery.” Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed that since the beginning of the year, domestic consumption has recovered, and investment in infrastructure and manufacturing has maintained rapid growth. From the demand side and expectations The perspective has formed a positive pull on industrial production; at the same time, the impact of the epidemic has subsided, driving enterprises to resume work and production and improve the efficiency of the supply chain, and the order of industrial production has been steadily restored.

Employment prices were generally stable. In terms of employment, the national surveyed urban unemployment rate averaged 5.6% from January to February, remaining basically stable. In terms of prices, the CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year in January-February. “The price stability in China is in stark contrast to the high international inflation. The core CPI excluding food and energy is only 0.8%, which is also generally stable.” Fu Linghui said.

The vitality of business entities tends to increase. From the perspective of manufacturing PMI, the manufacturing PMI in February has rebounded to 52.6%, reaching a relatively high level in recent years. Meanwhile, the services PMI was 55.6%, reaching a recent high. Fu Linghui said that among the manufacturing PMI in February, the manufacturing PMI of small enterprises has risen above the critical point, while last year the index was below the critical point for a long time. All these situations show that the vitality of enterprises and the market are gradually increasing, and the vitality and expectations of individual industrial and commercial households and small enterprises in the current market are improving.

Bright spots in consumption and investment

While the overall economy has stabilized and picked up, the economic operation has also shown some bright spots.

“A big bright spot in the economic operation in the first two months of this year is the improvement and recovery of consumption. From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year, realizing the change from decline to increase, indicating that market demand vitality is picking up. ” Fu Linghui said.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, said that with the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, consumer confidence has recovered, and offline consumption activities have gradually resumed. The demand for retail, catering, cultural tourism and other service industries that were previously disrupted by the epidemic has been significantly released. With the effect of the Spring Festival superimposed, the momentum of domestic consumption has been significantly enhanced.

In addition to consumption, on the demand side, investment has also improved. This year’s investment has maintained a steady growth. From January to February, investment increased by 5.5% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than last year’s annual growth rate. In terms of sectors, infrastructure investment increased by 9.0% year-on-year, manufacturing investment increased by 8.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 5.7%.

Wang Qing said that the pace of issuance of new local government special bonds in the first two months of this year continued to advance. The National Development and Reform Commission made it clear in January that this year it will further exert the “combined boxing” effect of various investment policies and promote them with efficient and powerful measures. Investment ran out of “acceleration”. This means that in the first two months of this year, infrastructure investment is fully guaranteed in terms of funding sources and project reserves. Looking ahead, infrastructure investment will still maintain a relatively high growth rate in March.

However, it should also be noted that since the external demand situation this year is more severe than last year, on the demand side, the role of imports and exports in driving economic growth has weakened compared to last year. “In the first two months of this year, China’s foreign trade started steadily, and the trade surplus continued to expand. China’s imports and exports to ASEAN maintained growth, but imports and exports to the EU, the United States and Japan declined.” Fu Linghui said that despite the great pressure, the There are many favorable conditions for foreign trade to promote stability and improve quality. On the whole, we are full of confidence in the development of foreign trade.

There are foundations and conditions to achieve growth goals

The economic operation in 2023 is off to a good start. Looking forward to the situation throughout the year, people in the industry generally believe that although there are pressures and challenges to achieve the expected economic growth target of around 5% this year, with the gradual consolidation of the foundation for economic recovery and the continuous implementation of economic stabilization measures, there is a solid foundation and basis for achieving this target. conditional.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that as the economic cycle accelerated and the demand for production improved significantly, all indicators in January and February improved compared with December last year. However, the foundation of economic recovery is still not solid, highlighted by the lack of confidence in private investment, the pressure on the job market and the stabilization of the real estate market. “The two sessions of the country have just ended, and the decision-makers have already proposed countermeasures.” Wen Bin said that with the continuous release of policy effects and the gradual improvement of market confidence, the foundation for economic recovery will be further consolidated, and the economic growth rate in 2023 is expected to reach 5.5%. Or so and even higher levels.

Fu Linghui also said that, first of all, after long-term development of the Chinese economy, the material and technological foundation has been very solid. The gross domestic product has reached 121 trillion yuan, with super-large-scale market advantages, a sound industrial system, and abundant labor resources. The quality of labor is still improving, and the momentum for innovation and development is constantly increasing. Secondly, the inhibitory effect of the epidemic on production demand has been largely eliminated this year, which is conducive to the release of economic growth potential. Third, in terms of expanding domestic demand, policies will continue to be strengthened. Fourth, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has drawn up a blueprint for future development, and the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People’s Congress have made comprehensive arrangements for this year’s work, which will greatly stimulate and boost confidence in economic development.

“There are pressures and challenges to achieve the expected target of around 5% this year, but we must also see that we have the conditions, foundation, and confidence to achieve the growth target.” Fu Linghui said. (Reporters Zhang Mo, Wang Qi, intern Ke Zhenjia)