A year ago, he was robbed of his head and was known as the existence second only to Maotai. Amyke was cut in half!

The article only records the thoughts of “Value Firm”, and does not constitute investment advice. The author does not have a group, does not charge for stock recommendation, and does not manage financial affairs on behalf of clients.

“This is the 1106th original article by Value Firm”

Munger said to fish where there are fish. This sentence reflects that investment is to choose a company in a good industry. After all, pigs will fly in the wind, and it is difficult to get better returns in an industry that is going downhill. .

So, the question is, where is the place where there are fish?

Medical beauty is without a doubt. In the first half of this year, affected by the epidemic, 80-90% of the companies in the whole market experienced a decline in performance. However, looking at the transcripts of several leading companies in the medical and beauty industry, it seems that there is no epidemic, and all of them have achieved relatively beautiful growth.

For example, Amic, the revenue in the first half of the year was 885 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.70%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 591 million, a year-on-year increase of 38.90%; the Q3 single-quarter operating income was 605 million, a year-on-year increase of 55.15%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 401 million. A year-on-year increase of 41.55%, with a net profit of 395 million after deducting non-return to the parent, a year-on-year increase of 52.26%.

You must know that Amic’s income basically comes from first- and second-tier cities, which we can see from the distribution of downstream medical and aesthetic institutions.

As of 2021, there are about 5,000 compliant medical and aesthetic institutions across the country. Among them, first-tier cities account for about 1,500, with the highest proportion, followed by provincial capitals, about 1,000 new first-tier cities, and 1,000 second-tier cities. First- and second-tier cities account for half of the total number of medical and aesthetic institutions, and the number accounts for half, and the revenue contribution will only be more. In general, the revenue contributed by them should be around 70% or even higher.

In the first half of this year, the first-tier cities that were most affected by the epidemic were basically the first-tier cities, especially Shanghai, which has the most developed finance. However, Amic’s performance did not decline. In the first half of the year, revenue and profit both achieved an increase of nearly 40%. His new rival, Huadong Medicine, achieved a year-on-year growth of 130.25% in the domestic medical beauty business in the first half of this year. Of course, this has a small base, but it is also enough to explain the prosperity of medical beauty.

01

Tracking of recent transcripts of leading medical and beauty companies in Value Firms

Since the third quarterly report contains nothing but figures, we mainly focus on the semi-annual report.

The core kinetic energy driving the company’s high performance growth is still the body. As can be seen from the figure below, the company’s solution products achieved revenue of 640 million in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 35.12%, accounting for 72.72% of revenue.

Medical beauty is a typical to B and then to C product. Consumers at the C end rely heavily on the recommendations of doctors at the B end, but Amic’s Hi Body is one of the few products that has achieved brand awareness at the C end. According to the “Value” Firm” grassroots research, many customers will directly ask the doctor for a high body.

On the one hand, Hibody is one of the few compliant products on the market with Class III medical device certificates; on the other hand, Hibody’s price is cheaper than any current compliant hyaluronic acid, with an average terminal price of 2-3,000 yuan. Liked by consumers. However, the profit of the channel is not thin (the ex-factory price of the body is 300+, the terminal sells two or three thousand, and the difference is the profit of the channel), so the doctor is also willing to recommend it.

Especially in the segmented field of neckline removal, there are no competitors, which is equivalent to a monopoly of Amic, so there is basically no suspense about the rapid growth of Hi-body.

At present, the company’s Hi Body has launched three models, namely the ordinary Hi Body for removing neck wrinkles (factory price 300+), the panda needle for removing dark circles around the eyes (factory price 800+), similar to water light Needle Bubble Needle.

According to the goals communicated by the company’s recent investors, the company’s revenue target in 2022 is 2.25 billion (originally 2.5 billion, which was partially lowered due to the impact of the epidemic), which is equivalent to a year-on-year increase of 55.4% in 2021. Among them, Hibody will sell 15.6 100 million, including 920 million neck lines, 550 million panda needles, and 90 million bubble needles.

In theory, the market space of panda needles is larger than that of neck lines, and the long-term space of bubble needles is larger than that of panda needles. Unsurprisingly, only solution product companies have a triple echelon of ordinary, panda needle, and bubble needles, one by one to promote the overall growth.

Looking at the figure below, it is not difficult to find that the growth rate of the company’s gel products is actually faster than that of solutions, with an overall revenue of 237 million, a year-on-year increase of 59.17%.

Although the company did not separately disclose the sales amount of the new product, the data obtained by “Value Firm” is that it sold 105 million in the first half of the year, so the problem of about 250 million in the whole year should not be a big problem.

The East China Girl Needle, which can be compared next door, sold 271 million in the first half of the year, which seems to be much more than Amic. However, as mentioned in the previous article, the promotion of East China is more aggressive, and Amic is more stable. The promotion of new products is too aggressive, and covering all institutions at once can easily lead to the collapse of the price system, because small institutions compete with large institutions, and other competitions can only be a price war. The price of the East China Girl Needle Terminal is about 18,800 yuan, but some small institutions can make a call for more than 9,000 yuan, and the price system is a bit chaotic.

Although the sales amount of Amic is not as good as that of East China, the price system has been maintained very well, so each has its own advantages and disadvantages. It is different from East China and only compared with itself. The overall performance of Amic Angel Needle in the past six months is still satisfactory.

In addition, the long-acting hyaluronic acid Bonida, which has been tepid in the past, has recently resumed growth. On the one hand, long-acting regeneration products such as Angel Needle and Girl Needle have been launched one after another, which has made consumers pay more attention to the long-acting products in the past; It was an unexpected surprise.

In the short and medium term, Amic’s growth momentum is still very strong. The market for Neckline Hi-body is far from saturated, and there will be panda needles and bubble needles with larger market space in the future. The newly-launched Moisturizing Angels have performed very well recently, and are expected to become the follow-up to Hi-body. Another growth point.

Relying on these existing products, the company has set a revenue of 2.25 billion this year (+55.4% year-on-year), 3.4 billion next year (+51% year-on-year), and 4.8 billion revenue in 2024 (+41% year-on-year) , High growth target of 6.5 billion revenue in 2025 (+35% year-on-year).

In addition to these old products, the company’s botulinum toxin has completed Phase III clinical enrollment, and it is expected to be launched at the end of 2024 at the latest in 2025. The experience of developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan shows that the market of botulinum toxin is not inferior to hyaluronic acid. At present, the basic botulinum toxin in my country is basically Monopolized by Botox (high-end) in the United States and Lanzhou Hengli (low-end) in China, one person accounts for nearly 40% of the share, and the rest of the shrimp are too small to be ignored.

In the future, Amic’s products will be launched, and the pricing probability will be between the two. Combined with the channel advantages of 6,000 stores, it is easy to open a hole, and even the price center will slowly move down and finally eat the Lanzhou Hengli market. After all, that’s how Hi-body started out in the first place.

In short, looking at Amic’s existing products and future pipelines, the short-, medium- and long-term growth momentum is still strong.

02

value firm last

Amy is really addictive, no matter whether you are a man or a woman, once you get in the car, you will repurchase it for life.

The director’s coach recently picked up a new member who was addicted to medical beauty. She pumped fat from other parts of her body to fill her butt, and also had a nose augmentation and double eyelid surgery. Botulinum toxins are all little things that are commonplace. It is precisely because of her serious obsession with medical beauty that this guy told the coach to suspend classes every three days. The coach is now very worried about how to make her continue the class. After all, if she doesn’t come often, it will have no effect, and if there is no effect, how can others be satisfied, and, Fitness is definitely far worse than the immediate effect of medical beauty.

It is said that consumption has been downgraded. At least in the fields of medical beauty and high-end liquor, which are often consumed by rich people, the director has not seen consumption downgraded. Having said that, I would like to share with you an interesting thing. Recently, a hypoglycemic drug semaglutide injection developed by Novo Nordisk has been sold out of stock in major Internet pharmacies. The reason behind this is that many do not have Diabetics buy it to lose weight…

Including Amic, many domestic manufacturers have made arrangements for this hypoglycemic drug. However, currently only Huadong, Renhui Bio and Amic have indications for weight loss.